In 2025, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to perform weakly under the dual influences of raw material cost fluctuations and supply-demand imbalances, prompting a deep structural adjustment in the industry pattern. With the acceleration of industry integration, the intensification of green transition policies, and the optimization of downstream demand structures, the cyclohexanone market is gradually moving away from disorderly competition and stepping into a new stage of high-quality development amid multiple intertwined variables.

The trend of industrial chain integration, highlighted in 2025, will continue to dominate market development. New capacity will increasingly focus on integrated projects that support downstream facilities, forming a complete industrial loop from raw materials to end products. Some of the output will be internally absorbed, further shrinking the spot market transaction scale. Under this structure, market pricing power is concentrating toward leading enterprises with full industrial chain synergy advantages, and industry concentration is continuously rising. Meanwhile, green low-carbon initiatives and compliance regulations have become core entry barriers to the industry. Outdated capacity is being phased out faster, while large-scale and green facilities become the main drivers of capacity growth, upgrading the overall industry technology level and environmental standards. Regional layout is also being optimized, with core production areas consolidating their positions based on raw material supply and downstream demand advantages, and green energy-rich regions piloting new production routes, forming a differentiated development pattern.

In the near future, cyclohexanone prices will remain closely tied to fluctuations in raw material costs, with the efficiency of cost transmission being a key influencing factor. Under the interplay of oversupply pressure on the supply side and cost support, prices are unlikely to show a unilateral trend, and oscillating adjustments will be the mainstream trend. In the short term, the fundamentals of supply-demand imbalance are difficult to reverse quickly, and prices will remain in a relatively low range. In the medium to long term, price trends will highly depend on three core variables: the stability of the raw material market, the pace of new capacity release, and the recovery strength of downstream demand. If costs provide effective support and downstream demand continues to warm up, prices are expected to gradually exit the low range; otherwise, they will remain weak and volatile. The deepening trend against internal industry competition will also offer some price support, preventing significant fluctuations caused by destructive competition.

On the supply side, capacity will continue to grow steadily but at a slower rate, with companies focusing more on capacity utilization rates and production efficiency. The release of capacity from integrated projects has a limited actual impact on market supply and demand, and the exit of outdated capacity has, to some extent, alleviated the oversupply pressure, yet the overall surplus supply pattern is unlikely to fundamentally change in the short term. On the demand side, structural optimization has become the core driver for market recovery. Traditional downstream industries maintain rigid demand, core downstream industrial expansion provides basic support, and emerging fields such as new energy materials are expected to become new highlights for demand growth, injecting incremental space into the market. The import and export market will also present new changes, with export volume expected to continue expanding, while high-end overseas capacity pressures local enterprises to accelerate technological upgrades, forming a healthy competition pattern between domestic and international markets.

Faced with market changes, companies are accelerating their transformation, with technological innovation becoming a core competitive advantage. The promotion of green production processes and the development of high-end products are key to overcoming homogeneous competition. Digitalization and intelligent upgrades help companies optimize production processes, reduce operating costs, and enhance risk resilience. Collaboration throughout the industrial chain and innovation in business models have also become crucial paths for companies to break through. Companies are placing more emphasis on working closely with upstream and downstream partners, stabilizing supply and demand relationships and locking in profit margins through long-term agreements, while expanding into international markets and exploring high value-added application areas, driving the industry from scale-based competition toward value-based competition. Looking ahead, although the cyclohexanone market faces various short-term challenges, with industry structure optimization, technological advancement, and improvements in demand composition, it is expected to gradually emerge from a weak position and enter a new phase of high-quality development. Industry participants who grasp the trends of integration, green development, and high-end orientation and strengthen their core competitiveness will be able to seize opportunities in market competition.